Showing posts with label awards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label awards. Show all posts

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Last Minute Oscar Predictions

I admit it, I should have put this up a week ago.  The fact is, I've been very lazy with the whole political/cultural blogging thing.  It's not that I haven't had anything to rant about, it's that I've become some deadened by what's going on, that I'm kind of just rolling over and letting the numb pass.  Problem is, it's not passing.  Still, I'm a huge movie buff and even though I find the Oscars exasperating and the actual show to be a major bore....well, movie buffs love the Oscars.  So here goes, my annual Oscar prediction post.

Like last year, I'll be listing three names or titles.  The first will be my prediction of who will actually win.  The second, who I would award from among the nominees.  And finally, who I would chose from all the movies I've seen.  As noted in the past, I work in the film industry, and as I've also noted,  most of  us who work in film don't make enough money to see manymovies.  This year hasn't been too bad.  I've seen all the best picture nominees except Life of Pi, all the directors except Ang Li, and all the acting nods except Helen Hunt in The Sessions.  So here goes.

Best Supporting Actress.  1. Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables.  2. Amy Adams for The Master.  3. Amy Adams for The Master.  Hey, I might have meant the Clint Eastwood movie she was in, but then I didn't see that one.  Nothing against Hathaway,but the nice voice, weight loss and and the filmed head shave doesn't alter the fact that she was only on screen for about four minutes.  Adams as the hard as steel, manipulative wife of cult founder Lancaster Dodd in The Master really stood out for me.  I was also impressed by Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook.  It's hard to play the less flashy roll and still hold a moral center in a complex film.

Best Supporting Actor.  1. Robert De Nero in Silver Linings Playbook.  2. Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master.  3. Samuel. L. Jackson in Django Unchained.   This is the one category that doesn't have a real, clear cut favorite.  De Nero will win because he hasn't won an Oscar in thirty years.  I know that's a silly reason, but I've seen some of the ads aimed at voters and it's the same approach used last year for Meryl Streep and The Iron Lady. ( A dreadful movie.)  I was hard pressed to find a preference from among the nominees.  Hoffman and Waltz could just as easily been nominated as leads, which gives them a bit of a leg up.  In the end, I chose Hoffman because I loved The Master more than Django.  Which brings us to the actor I would have given the Oscar to if he had been nominated.  Samuel L. Jackson's turn as Stephan, the house slave, who lives by manipulating those around him, by playing one side against the other in a fight for survival in a harsh and brutal situation, created  an incredibly complex character that a lesser actor couldn't have accomplished.  Jackson's best, and that's saying a lot.  Why hasn't Sam won one of these things before?

Best Actress.  1. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.  2. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.  3. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.  I hope no one out there thought I meant Hunger Games, though after seeing SLP, I wouldn't mind seeing her in, well anything.  There is only one person in this category that I would nix and that's Naomi Watts in The Impossible.  Other than that, I wouldn't be unhappy with any winner.  This is also a category that could have the big upset.  If it happens it will be Emmanuelle Riva for Amour.  Great movie. Depressing, but a great movie nevertheless.

Best Actor.  1. Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln.  2. Joaquin Phoenix for The Master.  3. Joaquin Phoenix for The Master.  Yes, I know.....Day-Lewis, English actor, aren't they all wonderful, yada, yada, yada.  Hey, no knock on the man, but it's Phoenix in a land slide for me.  His performance as a man desperate for any real human connection and his complete inability to make that connection just blew me away.  I don't often say this about a performance because it's kind of on the pretentious side, but we're moving into one for the ages, Shakespearean, and all those other, over the top superlatives that actors like to use.  Watch his body as well as listening to his words.  Always stiff and posed in odd angles.  Just great.  As far as Day-Lewis goes, quite frankly, I thought it a bit wooden.   Or more aptly, marble like, as in more statue than human being.

Best Director.  1.Steven Spielberg for Lincoln.  2. Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild.  3. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master.  I've always had mixed feelings about Spielberg.  Quite frankly I think he's at his best when making slight movies.  Jaws was a great horror film and the much derided War of the Worlds was pretty good science fiction.  It's the serious Spielberg that's less interesting.  In ads for the film, Spielberg let's us know that he didn't want to make a movie about the great man but about the human.  He didn't succeed.  As far as Zeitlin, the only reason I chose him over David O. Russell for SLP or Michael Haneke is because he made a wonderful movie with a whole lot less resources, including an amateur cast.  And again I go to The Master.  Let's put it this way, I don't think anyone's going to be surprised about the next category.

Best Picture.  1. Argo  2. Django Unchained.  3. The Master.  Argo will win because the directors branch of the Academy snubbed Ben Afleck and the actors branch is offended.  It's a really good movie, but for me the three films that stood out, among the nominees, were Django Unchained, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Silver Linings Playbook.  Throw in Amour, and there are five really good choices this year.  As already noted I didn't see Life of Pi, so no recommendation there, and as far as the others go, Zero Dark Thirty could have been trimmed to Zero Dark Twenty, Lincoln, as I've already noted was too reverential, and Les Miserables....it's not a great musical, it's a bad opera.  It's The Master that was the great film of the year.  Writer, director Paul Thomas Anderson came up with a film about the universal human need for acceptance as seen through the eyes of one of the great misfits of film history.  In the end, Anderson had the courage to cast Freddie adrift, a man forever alone.

The democracy of time list.  The American writer Edward Abbey, near the end of his life, gave an interview in which he was asked for his assessment of where he stood in American literature.  Abbey confessed that he viewed himself as a major writer.  When reminded that the critics disagreed, he said that the critics didn't make that decision.  It was the democracy of time that sorted out the great from the also ran.  Here is my list of films I saw last year that will, in my opinion, do well with the democracy of time.  The Master, Looper, Skyfall, Amour, Argo, Django Unchained, Haywire, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings Playbook, Flight and Moonrise Kingdom.  I'm sure there are others, but like I said, I work in the movies, that means I can't afford to go to the movies.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Oscar Nomination Predictions (Revised)

The Oscar nominations come out tomorrow and I figured, what the hell, let's beat the news to the punch. So here are my predictions on who gets the nod, with the eventual winner first on the list.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Up In The Air
4. Precious
5. Inglorious Basterds
6. An Education
7. Invictus
8. A Serious Man
9. 500 Days of Summer
10. Up

ADD

1. The Blind Side
2. District 9

Subtract

1. Invictus
2. 500 Days of Summer


(Almost. I was only off by two on this one. I was very surprised that Invictus didn't get a nod. Far from being Clint Eastwood's best, it was however, the type of biopic that usually makes these lists. 500 Days of Summer, not making it, wasn't too surprising, as if fell into that how to fill out the last couple of spots list. To all the far right critics (Not film critics.) who like to moan about liberal Hollywood, well Blind Side, a movie that was poorly reviewed, except for Sandra Bullock's performance, got a nomination. Oh those old fashioned, far right, Christian values. On District 9. These predictions were based on what critics have written, and other awards that have been given out, not strictly limited to films I've seen, but I did see District 9 and hated it. Very much of a video game film, with the constant pop pop pop of action.)


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kathryn Bigelow: The Hurt Locker
2. James Cameron: Avatar
3. Lee Daniels: Precious
4. Jason Reitman: Up In The Air
5. Quentin Tarantino: Inglorious Basterds

(Right across the board.)


BEST ACTOR

1. Jeff Bridges: Crazy Heart
2. George Clooney: Up In The Air
3. Colin Firth: A Single Man
4. Morgan Freeman: Invictus
5. Jeremy Renner: The Hurt Locker

(Right across the board.)


BEST ACTRESS

1. Sandra Bullock: The Blind Side
2. Meryl Streep: Julie & Julia
3. Helen Mirren: The Last Station
4. Gabourey Sidibe: Precious
5. Zoe Saldana: Avatar


(I went against conventional wisdom in picking Zoe Saldana against Carey Mulligan for An education. I overestimated Avatar's coat tail affect.)

Add

1. Carey Mulligan: An Education

Subtract

1. Zoe Saldana: Avatar


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Cristoph Waltz: Inglorious Basterds
2. Stanley Tucci: Julie & Julia
3. Christopher Plummer: The Last Station
4. Anthony Mackie: The Hurt Locker
5. Woody Harrelson: The Messenger


(I was sort of wrong on two of these. I'm a big Stanley Tucci fan, but found his work in Julie & Julia far more impressive than his creepy turn in The Lovely Bones. If I was rooting for any actor in these catagories it was Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker. His performance was the perfect counterpoint to Renner, and Renner's performance works far less well without Mackie. Matt Damon was good in Invictus, but if that part had been played by a lesser known actor, I doubt it would have got a nod, even if it had been better executed.)

Add

1. Matt Damon: Invictus
2. Stanley Tucci: The Lovely Bones

Subtract

1. Anthony Mackie: The Hurt Locker
2. Stanley Tucci: Julie & Julia


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Mo'Nique: Precious
2. Maggie Gyllenhaal: Crazy Heart
3. Diane Kruger: Ingloriuos Basterds
4. Melanie Laurent: Inglorious Basterds
5. Vera Farmiga: Up In The Air


(Of all the categories, to me, this one had the biggest surprise. Diane Kruger for Ingloriuos Basterds got across the board nominations in virtually every other competition. I'll bet the lady went to bed last night assuming her name would be listed. A big disappointment for her and all the fans of the film, and I'm one of them. I know, the same can be said for Penelope Cruz in Nine, but in all honesty, I thought it was over rated, and thought for sure it was the most disposable of the lot. I guess we can never underestimate the star power of a sex pot role. I've kind of overlooked Anna Kendrick as the far more conventional character in Up In The Air. Farmiga was memorable, but Kendrick has always been just "sort of there" for me. Not bad, but her work wasn't the role I thought about after the movie was over. If she wins, does she say goodbye to the Twilight franchise? It would probably be a good move.)

Add

1. Anna Kendrick: Up In The Air
2. Penlope Cruz: Nine

Subtract

1. Diane Kruger: Ingloriuos Basterds
2. Melanie Laurent: Inglorious Basterds


The increase in best picture nominations makes it both easier and harder to make predictions. The number of sure bets goes up, but the border line pictures add to those last three or four nominations. If the major nominees divide the vote enough, it's possible that a film like Inivctus or 500 Days of Summer could win, though that is very unlikely. With 10 noms, it's unlikely that a director without a picture in the running can get nominated. I just picked those I thought most likely. I thought the five actors listed are so far above and beyond the other contenders that this is the one category I feel really sure about, though Daniel Day Lewis for Nine wouldn't surprise me. I felt sure about the first four actresses listed, but with all the money made by Avatar and curiosity about new technical advances, I snuck Zoe Saldana in for Avatar. It's also the nomination I feel least sure of. Supporting nominations are always the ones with the most chance to have unexpected nominees and winners. I picked Tucci for Julie & Julia rather than The Lovely Bones because it was a far more popular movie, and let's be honest, he was more creepy than effective in Bones. A Christopher Plummer could end up winning the Oscar just like Alan Arkin did; a career award, edging out Cristoph Waltz. Anthony Mackie sneaks in because The Hurt Locker is winning so many other awards. Supporting actress is the real guess work category. Mo'Nique and Diane Kruger are, to me, the only sure bets in this category. Melanie Laurent may be a stretch, but I thought she was better than Kruger for the same movie. Gyllenhaal gets swept along with Jeff Bridges.