Better Late Than Never Oscar Predictions

Well, I should have done this a couple of weeks ago, but here are my annual Academy Award predictions. This year I'm going to do something a bit different. I'll make one prediction for who I think will win in some of the major categories. Then, who I think should win from among the nominees. Then, who I think should win from all the films I saw last year. In the second two tiers of predictions, I will list more than one winner, but the first of the group will be who I would vote for, if I had a vote, and if someone had a gun to my head and said choose one.
-
Best supporting actress. Melissa Leo, for The Fighter will win. Even though I think she is mis-nominated and should be considered a lead, from among nominees I would vote for either Hailee Stienfeld for True Grit or Amy Adams for The Fighter. Melissa Leo was, in my opinion, over the top, while Amy Adams did the hard work of toning down what could have been a real scenery chewing role. And my favorites from all movies...Chloe Moritz from Kick-Ass, Kristen Scott-Thomas from Nowhere Boy, and Barbara Hershey and Mila Kunis from Black Swan. This is the one category where most of the my nods didn't even get nominations.
-
Best Supporting Actor. Christian Bale for The Fighter will win. From among the nominees, Bale or Geoffrey Rush from The King's Speech. Across the board, Andrew Garfield for The Social Network,Vincent Cassel for Black Swan, Armie Hammer for The Social Network, and Bale and Rush. Garfield's performance of the only true friend of Mark Zuckerberg who watched, understood, but couldn't believe that his friend would betray him is one of the best acting jobs I've ever seen, bar none. I couldn't believe he hasn't won all of the acting awards.
-
Actress. Natalie Portman for Black Swan will win, I'd vote for her and only her among the nominees, and opening things up to all the films I saw lasy year, only Hailee Stienfield for True Grit would be considered on the same level. Between those two, my only toss-up.
-
Actor. Colin Firth for The King's Speech will win. From among the nominees, Javier Bardem for Biutiful, Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network, and Jeff Bridges for True Grit. And no, Firth would not be on my short list. From all films, the same list, with one addition, Mark Wahlberg from The Fighter.
_
Director. Tom Hooper for The King's Speech will win. Who should win from among the nominees, David Fincher for The Social Network or the Coen brothers for True Grit. Again, the same list for all films.
-
Best Picture. The Kings' Speech will win, and it does not deserve the award. There is a certain type of American that has a reverence for all things British, and any examination of their history... well let's just say it's an undeserved reverence. From among the nominees, The Social Network, True Grit, Black Swan and The Fighter. Among all films, add Biutiful after The Social Network, and Kick-Ass Taking up the rear.
-
And the best release from last year, the restored version of Metropolis.